Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A0 0xa018…48ec sports 19 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$12,275 (-47%) realized −$12,275 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip

Net edge-74%after slip

Net WR16%break-even

Win rate16%3W / 16L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,374per market

Trades / day25.4pace

Fees−$432est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +16%

net ROI/market (all)-68.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-49.4%	-54.2%	25%	25%	+20.4%
≤30d	19	-64.8%	-68.2%	16%	16%	-54.1%
≤90d	19	-64.8%	-68.2%	16%	16%	-54.1%
all	19	-64.8%	-68.2%	16%	16%	-54.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.4 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-68.2%	16%	-54.1%
10%	-71.2%	16%	-58.5%
15% ← realistic here	-74.0%	16%	-62.5%
20%	-76.5%	16%	-66.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -65% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,863) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -56% → late -72% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$2,163 vs −$1,196 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$12,275

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)16%

Wins / losses3 / 16

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$432

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage6d

Avg bet$1,374

Trades / day25.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Jun 12	$3,701	+$3,792	+102%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner	Jun 12	$840	−$840	-100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner	Jun 11	$521	−$450	-86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 11	$666	−$656	-98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op	Jun 10	$1,354	−$1,333	-98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	Jun 10	$1,339	−$1,086	-81%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro	Jun 10	$34	−$9	-27%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 08	$1,135	−$1,115	-98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 08	$4,145	−$4,121	-99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO1) - Asia Masters Group B	Jun 08	$117	−$117	-100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 07	$925	+$897	+97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 07	$828	−$815	-98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner	Jun 07	$274	−$273	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Jun 07	$2,660	−$2,653	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner	Jun 07	$2,996	−$2,982	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	Jun 07	$974	−$960	-99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Jun 06	$1,863	+$1,798	+96%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	Jun 06	$1,202	−$1,188	-99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	Jun 06	$538	−$530	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	SELL Hanwha Life Esports	100¢	$7,493	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	46¢	$701	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	50¢	$765	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	50¢	$2,176	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	50¢	$3	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	50¢	$24	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	50¢	$32	5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2 Ares	47¢	$416	5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2 Ares	47¢	$421	5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2 Ares	47¢	$3	5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner	SELL Galions	38¢	$40	6d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner	SELL Galions	38¢	$29	6d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner	SELL Galions	38¢	$2	6d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner	BUY Galions	37¢	$70	6d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner	BUY Galions	48¢	$448	6d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner	BUY Galions	48¢	$4	6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	BUY 9z	47¢	$666	6d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op	BUY Zero Tenacity	49¢	$1,354	7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	SELL NRG	100¢	$551	7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	BUY NRG	42¢	$26	7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	BUY NRG	42¢	$206	7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	37¢	$539	7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	37¢	$273	7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	38¢	$295	7d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro	SELL HEROIC Academy	29¢	$25	7d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro	BUY HEROIC Academy	39¢	$34	7d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	33¢	$119	9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	33¢	$3	9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	33¢	$3	9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	33¢	$1	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records