Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa01a…3aee sports 42 markets active 12h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,175 (+12%) realized +$1,175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$565
14 days+$1,014
30 days+$1,014
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,209
other 22% −$191
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 52% -3.9%
≤30d 42 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 60% -0.5%
≤90d 42 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 60% -0.5%
all 42 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 60% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 60% -0.5%
10% -13.8% 48% -10.0%
15% -22.2% 40% -18.7%
20% -29.8% 31% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$161 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage9d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 −$98 -97%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $505 −$495 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $260 −$250 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $444 +$311 +70%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 12 $128 −$36 -28%
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$8 -6%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,944 −$242 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $367 +$818 +223%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $472 −$467 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $385 −$380 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $253 +$126 +50%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $248 +$53 +21%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $100 +$17 +17%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $188 +$259 +138%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $763 +$387 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $425 +$235 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $240 +$183 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $229 −$226 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $152 −$140 -92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$25 +81%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $283 +$61 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $121 +$61 +51%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $100 +$14 +14%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 10 $151 +$57 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $137 −$135 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $99 +$59 +59%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $120 +$31 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $588 +$447 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $197 +$71 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $216 +$128 +59%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 08 $60 +$6 +9%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $156 +$48 +31%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 +$40 +79%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $144 +$46 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $77 +$78 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 71¢ $50 11h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $101 2d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 35¢ $505 3d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Toronto Tempo 6¢ $6 3d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Toronto Tempo 1¢ $4 3d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 51¢ $260 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $756 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 58¢ $444 4d
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 4d
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $372 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 4d
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4d
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $510 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $1,185 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $472 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $472 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $367 4d
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $71 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $385 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $378 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $253 4d
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL Las Vegas Aces 100¢ $301 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records