Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa01d…bb78 crypto 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$363 (-3%) realized −$338 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate68%80W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$61
crypto 30% −$287
other 12% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -1.8% -11.2% 72% 32% -9.4%
≤30d 60 -1.8% -11.2% 72% 32% -9.4%
≤90d 60 -1.8% -11.2% 72% 32% -9.4%
all 118 -8.0% -16.7% 68% 31% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 31% -12.2%
10% -24.7% 10% -20.6%
15% -32.0% 7% -28.2%
20% -38.6% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$31 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses80 / 38
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage224d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $70 −$30 -42%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $35 +$15 +41%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $20 +$6 +30%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $321 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) Jun 23 $13 $0 -2%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $447 +$26 +6%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $26 +$23 +91%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $112 +$5 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $157 +$24 +15%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $110 +$12 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$2 -8%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $166 +$23 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$6 +8%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $95 $0 -0%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $127 −$31 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $276 −$17 -6%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $40 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $137 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $275 −$46 -17%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $163 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $131 +$12 +9%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $36 +$5 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 34¢ $20 4m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 59¢ $6 18m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 59¢ $30 18m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL FOKUS 41¢ $20 19m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 60¢ $6 22m
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 70¢ $28 23m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $50 27m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 70¢ $35 53m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 65¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 65¢ $14 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 65¢ $7 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 50¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $62 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $321 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) SELL Team Spirit 88¢ $13 3h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 90¢ $13 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos SELL OG 100¢ $170 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 93¢ $23 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 93¢ $2 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 93¢ $63 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 93¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 543 history records