Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A0 0xa020…fe9b world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$7
other 21% +$7
politics 15% +$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 11% -8.2%
≤90d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 11% -8.2%
all 35 +1.5% -8.2% 51% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 9% -8.2%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage321d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $33 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $67 +$11 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $65 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $54 +$2 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $43 −$5 -11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $145 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $6 +$2 +30%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Nov 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $26 +$3 +12%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $41 +$1 +4%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $43 $0 +1%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 06 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $35 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $20 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $42 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $52 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $70 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $72 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $56 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $30 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $25 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $28 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $43 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $11 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $64 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.44 · official $32.09 (match) · 111 history records