Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa022…72c2 crypto 35 markets active 5h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$181 (-11%) realized −$177 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$42
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$88
crypto 28% +$92
sports 17% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.1% -39.5% 0% 0% -19.0%
≤30d 9 -22.4% -29.8% 0% 0% -20.5%
≤90d 21 -10.0% -18.6% 29% 29% -11.5%
all 33 -7.6% -16.4% 30% 30% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 30% -22.2%
10% -24.4% 30% -29.6%
15% -31.7% 30% -36.4%
20% -38.4% 24% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage99d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 22¢ $9 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $86 −$5 -6%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $81 −$15 -19%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $232 −$17 -7%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $49 −$11 -23%
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $115 −$16 -14%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $67 −$10 -15%
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $109 −$12 -12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $24 +$19 +78%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 01 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 21 $28 +$24 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 21 $13 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 21 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 21 $22 +$29 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 21 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 21 $40 +$36 +90%
First Blood in Game 3? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 21 $25 +$18 +70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 21? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 19? Mar 19 $17 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 19 $9 +$9 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 19 $16 +$22 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 19 $2 +$5 +331%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 19 $192 −$192 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 13? Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 13? Mar 13 $130 +$62 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $34 −$12 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $10 4h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 4h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $36 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 3d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 4d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 4d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 5d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 7d
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 7d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 7d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $27 7d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $51 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $52 7d
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.76 · official $21.01 · 124 history records