Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa025…1607 other 200 markets active 0h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$549 (+6%) realized +$550 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%76W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$272
other 47% +$502
politics 1% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.5% -10.0% 53% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 36 -0.5% -10.0% 53% 50% -8.9%
≤90d 192 -6.2% -15.1% 37% 34% -10.2%
all 198 -1.5% -10.9% 38% 35% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 35% -6.2%
10% -19.4% 32% -15.2%
15% -27.2% 28% -23.4%
20% -34.3% 21% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$18 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$550
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses76 / 122
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions2
Markets (closed)198 / 200
History coverage310d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $202 −$100 -50%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$101 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $161 +$69 +43%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $81 +$19 +23%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $91 +$36 +40%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $56 +$34 +61%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $17 −$9 -49%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$21 +69%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$16 -76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 −$2 -4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +91%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$3 -12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$22 +22%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$17 +84%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$3 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $105 −$4 -4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $36 −$5 -15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$16 +157%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $34 +$12 +37%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $12 +$8 +70%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 +$4 +353%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 02 $9 +$20 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $95 −$15 -16%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Will AC Milan vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $6 +$13 +206%
Will Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Apr 26 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Apr 26 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 26 $6 $0 -9%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $7 25m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $527 42m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $310 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $101 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $98 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $231 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $131 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $31 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 36¢ $11 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 31¢ $10 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 88¢ $100 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.69 · official $6.30 (match) · 783 history records