Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa026…6d14 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$123
sports 8% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 21% +4.8%
≤30d 28 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 21% +4.8%
≤90d 28 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 21% +4.8%
all 28 -3.1% -12.3% 25% 21% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 21% +4.8%
10% -20.7% 21% -5.2%
15% -28.4% 18% -14.4%
20% -35.4% 14% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$10 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$68 +45%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$35 +34%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$81 +784%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$90 +874%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +219%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 13m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $220 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 15h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $136 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 31h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 31h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $33 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 39 history records