Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa027…e1d5 other 319 markets active 14d ago coverage 439d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 439d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$65,605 (+0%) realized +$65,605 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate88%281W / 38L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150,444per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$41,133,788
politics 8% −$1,858,159
crypto 2% −$319
other 2% −$13,852
sports 1% −$6,606
economics 1% +$833,392
world 0% +$288
culture 0% −$11,512
tech 0% +$15
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 3 -32.9% -39.3% 67% 0% -9.0%
all 319 +22.9% +11.2% 88% 7% -89.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.2% 7% -89.1%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 6% -90.1%
15% -9.2% 6% -91.1%
20% -18.1% 5% -91.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$6,582) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,998 vs −$1,162,023 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

439d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65,605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses281 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)319 / 319
History coverage439d ⚠
Avg bet$150,444
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 319 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,003 +$6 +1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $1,011 +$6 +1%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $1,007 +$2 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Dec 04 $1,013 +$1 +0%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Nov 04 $1,004 +$1 +0%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Oct 05 $1,011 +$2 +0%
WLFI >$35B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Sep 05 $1,102 +$1 +0%
Will Santos Laguna win the 2025 Leagues Cup? Aug 04 $957 +$1 +0%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? Aug 04 $993 +$1 +0%
Will Querétaro win the 2025 Leagues Cup? Aug 03 $1,067 +$1 +0%
Will Atlas win the 2025 Leagues Cup? Aug 03 $1,159 +$1 +0%
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2025 Leagues Cup? Aug 03 $1,276 +$1 +0%
Will León win the 2025 Leagues Cup? Aug 03 $1,305 +$1 +0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2025 Leagues Cup? Aug 03 $1,549 +$2 +0%
Will San Diego FC win the 2025 Leagues Cup? Aug 03 $2,471 +$4 +0%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? Jul 28 $3,068 +$3 +0%
Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jul 27 $27 +$3 +10%
F1 Belgian Grand Prix: McLaren vs. Ferrari Jul 27 $69 $0 +0%
F1 Belgian Grand Prix: McLaren vs. Mercedes Jul 27 $69 $0 +0%
F1 Belgian Grand Prix: McLaren vs. Red Bull Jul 27 $70 $0 +0%
Will England win 4-2? Jul 27 $299 $0 +0%
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jul 27 $8,455 +$9 +0%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be l Jul 27 $10,614 −$10,614 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Will Whittaker vs. de Ridder be decided any other way Jul 27 $114 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Will de Ridder win by decision? Jul 27 $115 +$156 +136%
UFC Fight Night: de Ridder and Pico Jul 27 $10,246 +$10 +0%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? Jul 26 $365 +$188 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Will de Ridder win by KO/TKO/DQ? Jul 26 $156 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Will de Ridder win by submission? Jul 26 $156 −$156 -100%
MLS: Will LAFC beat Portland? Jul 26 $191 $0 +0%
MLS: Will Nashville SC beat San Diego FC? Jul 26 $194 $0 +0%
Wings vs Valkyries Jul 26 $5,953 +$6 +0%
Will Tony Finau win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? Jul 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on July 25? Jul 25 $2,081 −$2,016 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 25? Jul 25 $10,930 +$11 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 25 $68,344 +$80 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 25? Jul 25 $6,076 −$6,027 -99%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on July 25? Jul 25 $2,258 +$2 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? Jul 25 $8,714 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on July 25? Jul 25 $9,399 +$187 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on July 25? Jul 25 $16,192 +$6,049 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on July 25? Jul 25 $50,559 +$19,061 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on July 25? Jul 25 $19,047 −$18,992 -100%
XRP above $3.50 on July 25? Jul 25 $556 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 25? Jul 25 $1,049 +$1 +0%
Solana above $180 on July 25? Jul 25 $14,729 +$15 +0%
Will Philip Knowles win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? Jul 25 $920 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,003 13d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,011 44d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 1? BUY Up $1 75d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,007 106d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,003 134d
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,005 165d
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,013 194d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,004 224d
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,011 257d
WLFI >$35B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $1,102 285d
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament? BUY No 100¢ $993 315d
Will Santos Laguna win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $957 315d
Will San Diego FC win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 316d
Will San Diego FC win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $402 316d
Will Atlas win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,159 316d
Will León win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,305 316d
Will Querétaro win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,067 316d
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,549 316d
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 316d
Will San Diego FC win the 2025 Leagues Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,050 316d
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 322d
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2025 PGA TOUR 3M Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,063 323d
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? BUY Yes 100¢ $995 323d
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? BUY Yes 100¢ $325 323d
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? BUY Yes 100¢ $159 323d
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 323d
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? BUY Yes 100¢ $168 323d
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 323d
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 323d
Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 323d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records