Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa031…30a8 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
other 24% $0
politics 17% −$3
crypto 13% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 +200.5% +171.9% 20% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +200.5% +171.9% 20% 10% -9.5%
all 46 +40.6% +27.2% 30% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.2% 2% -10.5%
10% +15.0% 2% -19.1%
15% +3.9% 2% -26.9%
20% -6.3% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage477d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $108 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +9%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $62 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $9 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 13 $23 $0 -1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files? Jun 25 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 29 $23 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 21? May 22 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 14 $22 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $21 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on March 3? Mar 03 $17 −$9 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $11 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $22 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $16 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $24 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $42 10h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records