Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa032…2090 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (179 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$926 (+9%) realized +$896 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%51W / 40L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day178.9pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,188
other 9% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (179 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +3.8% -6.1% 56% 52% +6.1%
≤30d 91 +3.8% -6.1% 56% 52% +6.1%
≤90d 91 +3.8% -6.1% 56% 52% +6.1%
all 91 +3.8% -6.1% 56% 52% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 52% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 43% -4.0%
15% -23.3% 34% -13.3%
20% -30.8% 25% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$46 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,742
Realized+$896
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses51 / 40
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions20
Markets (closed)91 / 111
History coverage2d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day178.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C MIR 25¢ 100¢ $164 $665 +$501 (+306%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Over 50¢ 48¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Under 54¢ 52¢ $270 $257 −$12 (-5%)
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season ONSIDE GAMING 56¢ 64¢ $207 $235 +$28 (+13%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners Over 37¢ 25¢ $331 $226 −$105 (-32%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 17¢ 18¢ $118 $121 +$3 (+3%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 53¢ 56¢ $80 $83 +$4 (+5%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 42¢ 44¢ $76 $81 +$5 (+6%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 48¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 38¢ 38¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Misa Esports 53¢ 100¢ $29 $55 +$26 (+89%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 50¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 50¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 49¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 50¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 38¢ 39¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season Contra 10¢ 10¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Blaze 8¢ 0¢ $320 $2 −$318 (-99%)
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners Under 30¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio Jun 23 $78 +$12 +15%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $327 +$373 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $316 +$384 +121%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $209 +$281 +135%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $590 +$410 +70%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu Jun 23 $401 +$227 +56%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $51 +$49 +97%
Piracicaba: Completed Match: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodrigu Jun 23 $11 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $81 +$124 +152%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $198 −$138 -70%
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 23 $203 −$4 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $6 +$3 +48%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $9 +$3 +30%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $159 +$228 +144%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 23 $3 −$1 -25%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $157 −$157 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $191 −$191 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $1,289 +$735 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $80 −$12 -15%
Targu Mures: Gabi Boitan vs Denis Yevseyev Jun 23 $1,215 −$33 -3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $489 −$480 -98%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Ruse (+1.5) Jun 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones Jun 23 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$7 +17%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $9 +$8 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $3 +$2 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $40 +$50 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $14 +$15 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 −$31 -86%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $81 +$21 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $66 +$65 +98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $11 +$11 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Jun 22 $2 +$3 +140%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $35 +$22 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel Jun 22 $7 +$2 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $20 +$3 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 22 $13 −$3 -22%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $2 +$3 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Jun 22 $4 +$1 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $10 +$14 +129%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $53 −$22 -41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer Jun 22 $4 +$1 +40%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 22 $32 +$3 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $6 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $81 59m
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $0 1h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $27 1h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $13 1h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $4 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $95 1h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $5 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $81 2h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $38 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $3 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $31 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $175 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 17¢ $38 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $23 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $6 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 30¢ $2 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 17¢ $0 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 17¢ $3 2h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $11 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $6 2h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $166 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $8 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 28¢ $0 2h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $13 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $53 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $26 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $7 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $96 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $94 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,742.15 · official $2,742.15 (match) · 351 history records