Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa03b…0ca2 sports 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-15%) realized −$30 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate65%74W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$33
other 22% −$6
weather 19% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.0% -9.6% 84% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 64 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 64 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 0% -12.5%
all 113 -14.5% -22.6% 65% 13% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 13% -26.0%
10% -30.0% 12% -33.1%
15% -36.8% 12% -39.5%
20% -43.0% 9% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses74 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: PSYKN Company vs Weibo Gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 27m
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $12 2h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 SELL Yes 0¢ $11 3h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $12 3h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 SELL Yes 0¢ $11 3h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $12 3h
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.45 · official $5.45 (match) · 208 history records