Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa03d…d98c other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,120 (+15%) realized +$2,135 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,105
14 days+$2,105
30 days+$2,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$2,292
world 4% +$39
sports 3% −$370
crypto 1% −$19
culture 0% −$18
politics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 40% +6.1%
≤30d 10 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 40% +6.1%
≤90d 38 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 37% +2.7%
all 38 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 37% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 37% +2.7%
10% -33.0% 32% -7.1%
15% -39.5% 21% -16.1%
20% -45.4% 18% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$57 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$2,135
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage394d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6,332 +$733 +12%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia Jun 21 $130 −$126 -97%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $4,747 +$1,624 +34%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $113 −$109 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $472 −$168 -36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 −$26 -28%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $148 +$108 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $72 +$76 +105%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? Apr 26 $25 −$18 -71%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 26 $160 −$138 -86%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 19 $58 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 17 $42 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 17 $28 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 17 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $30 +$21 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $54 −$4 -7%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 16 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Sucker" this week? (January 25) Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $500 −$399 -80%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Apr 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $147 +$481 +327%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $100 −$59 -59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 14 $527 +$78 +15%
Will Trump say "Biden" this week? Apr 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 1h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $7,066 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $6,332 4d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia BUY Yes 27¢ $31 4d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,421 4d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $950 4d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia BUY Yes 31¢ $50 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $46 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $54 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $54 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $65 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $53 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $91 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 24¢ $91 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $113 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $113 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $98 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $98 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $255 5d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia BUY Yes 21¢ $49 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $148 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $4,740 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.02 · official $226.02 (match) · 179 history records