Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa045…b4b9 crypto 755 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%417W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 563 +0.2% -9.3% 61% 61% -9.3%
≤30d 754 -2.5% -11.8% 55% 54% -11.4%
≤90d 754 -2.5% -11.8% 55% 54% -11.4%
all 754 -2.5% -11.8% 55% 54% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 54% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 51% -19.9%
15% -27.9% 36% -27.6%
20% -35.0% 23% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses417 / 337
Open positions1
Markets (closed)754 / 755
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 754 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 78¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 1796 history records