Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa046…b835
other · 16 markets active 2h ago
6.0score
+$6 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$643
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage67d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 1 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 99¢ 100¢ $639 $643 +$4 (+1%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $398 $0 +0%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? Jun 01 $240 $0 +0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? Jun 01 $302 $0 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 25 $640 +$1 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $235 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 18 $410 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $643 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $233 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $410 $0 +0%
Will "Sitting Bull" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will "Someone Has to Know" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 22 $208 $0 +0%
Will "America: Our Defining Hours: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show Apr 22 $330 $0 +0%
Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Apr 10 $641 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$6
sports 17% −$3
culture 12% +$1
crypto 11% +$1
tech 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 -12.2% -20.6% 88% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -6.5% -15.4% 93% 0% -9.5%
all 15 -6.5% -15.4% 93% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $642.91 · official $642.91 (match) · 30 history records