Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:29:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa04c…9e3f sports 14 markets active 2d ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26,758 (-30%) realized −$26,758 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,471per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1,539est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,163
14 days−$8,063
30 days−$9,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$7,739
other 11% −$10,339
politics 10% −$8,956
crypto 1% −$500
world 1% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% -14.3%
≤30d 8 -37.8% -43.7% 38% 38% -21.9%
≤90d 10 +14.1% +3.2% 40% 40% -20.4%
all 14 -18.5% -26.2% 29% 29% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 29% -37.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 21% -43.6%
15% -39.7% 21% -49.0%
20% -45.7% 14% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,609 vs −$4,247 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,758
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1,539
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage597d
Avg bet$6,471
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15,075 +$2,755 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $19,062 +$8,111 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6,114 −$5,082 -83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19,952 −$8,947 -45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5,005 −$4,900 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $520 −$500 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $1,539 −$1,539 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,214 +$784 +64%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $2,050 −$2,000 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $513 +$2,786 +543%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $1,245 −$1,245 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 04 $8,800 −$8,800 -100%
Will Trump say "Hitler" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Oct 26 $9,000 −$8,956 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $17,831 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 83¢ $15,075 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $18,086 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $9,091 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 47¢ $9,087 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $9,971 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $219 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $60 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $1,027 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 19¢ $753 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 42¢ $5,087 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 35¢ $3,177 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5,069 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $7,828 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $509 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 17¢ $4,356 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $801 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $2,987 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $61 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $1,660 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $34 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $184 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $1,981 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $1,647 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $618 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $33 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records