Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa04e…8a62 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$23
politics 30% −$17
sports 7% −$28
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 138 -1.4% -10.8% 5% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage130d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $247 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $262 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,213 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $296 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $245 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $265 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $287 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $293 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $292 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $240 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $284 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $465 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $834 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 15h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 27h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 35h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 39h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 15d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 19d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 23d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 25d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 25d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $247 26d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $247 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 27d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $201 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 411 history records