Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A0 0xa052…ee29 sports 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$746 (+7%) realized +$748 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%78W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$385
7 days+$644
14 days+$344
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$878
crypto 13% −$594
other 5% +$71
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 45% -0.0%
≤30d 153 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 46% -6.2%
≤90d 153 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 46% -6.2%
all 153 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 46% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 46% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 40% -15.2%
15% -28.5% 37% -23.4%
20% -35.5% 25% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$28 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$748
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses78 / 75
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions7
Markets (closed)153 / 160
History coverage12d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
England to score first vs. Croatia? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Mannarino 53¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 33¢ 50¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+52%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 54¢ 38¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $805 +$223 +28%
Shelton vs. Sonego: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Minaur vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Shapovalov Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $1,001 +$37 +4%
Bergs vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +123%
ITF Constanta: Kai Thompson vs Edoardo Cherie Ligniere Jun 17 $10 −$9 -90%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$15 +97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori Jun 16 $10 +$23 +226%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $425 −$335 -79%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $376 +$528 +140%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $203 −$180 -89%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $323 +$234 +72%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Mannarino Jun 16 $224 −$200 -89%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $742 +$118 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Collignon Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +197%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $856 −$33 -4%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $30 +$13 +42%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Set 1 Winner: Zandschulp vs Wendelken Jun 15 $15 +$9 +59%
Set 1 Winner: Nardi vs Bertola Jun 15 $15 +$12 +76%
Set 1 Winner: Tarvet vs Safiullin Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Tiafoe Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 99¢ $1,028 28m
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 66¢ $202 1h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 82¢ $603 1h
Shelton vs. Sonego: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $31 2h
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 3h
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Mannarino 53¢ $10 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $10 3h
Minaur vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 3h
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Shapovalov BUY Shapovalov 33¢ $5 3h
Shelton vs. Sonego: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego BUY Sonego 31¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 20¢ $10 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $8 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 99¢ $1,031 3h
Bergs vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 95¢ $1,001 3h
Bergs vs. Fritz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 5h
ITF Constanta: Kai Thompson vs Edoardo Cherie Ligniere SELL Kai Thompson 4¢ $1 5h
ITF Constanta: Kai Thompson vs Edoardo Cherie Ligniere BUY Kai Thompson 35¢ $10 7h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 7h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 7h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 7h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 15h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 15h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 25¢ $7 25h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 99¢ $904 25h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 51¢ $274 25h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Andrey Rublev 6¢ $22 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.62 · official $67.62 (match) · 345 history records