Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa053…efe8 weather 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-18%) realized −$36 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$41
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -42.3% -47.8% 20% 20% -32.7%
≤30d 15 -42.3% -47.8% 20% 20% -32.7%
≤90d 15 -42.3% -47.8% 20% 20% -32.7%
all 15 -42.3% -47.8% 20% 20% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 20% -32.7%
10% -52.8% 20% -39.2%
15% -57.3% 20% -45.0%
20% -61.5% 20% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$9 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$28 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$25 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$21 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $18 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.48 · official $48.48 (match) · 27 history records