Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa054…07c2 sports 1242 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$13,438 (-24%) realized −$13,435 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%798W / 439L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$480est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$868
14 days+$868
30 days+$1,657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$4,405
other 42% −$8,999
crypto 0% +$2
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +28.1% +15.9% 80% 60% +19.5%
≤30d 27 +79.5% +62.4% 59% 56% +3.3%
≤90d 87 +4.5% -5.5% 41% 40% -37.2%
all 1237 -2.8% -12.0% 65% 53% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 53% -32.1%
10% -20.4% 43% -38.6%
15% -28.1% 31% -44.5%
20% -35.2% 21% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$66 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$13,435
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses798 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$480
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1237 / 1242
History coverage521d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $488 $487 −$1 (-0%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $408 −$396 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,289 +$616 +48%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $436 +$443 +102%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $376 +$36 +10%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $207 +$168 +82%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $87 +$1,665 +1906%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1,201 −$597 -50%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $563 −$553 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $588 +$571 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $314 +$49 +16%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $994 −$966 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $745 +$254 +34%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $311 +$431 +138%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $326 −$321 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $293 +$152 +52%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $242 −$236 -98%
Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) May 29 $113 +$122 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $98 +$202 +206%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $147 +$36 +24%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $15 +$16 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $61 +$86 +140%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $39 −$38 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $27 +$23 +84%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 16 $79 −$78 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova May 11 $278 −$278 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $171 +$107 +62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $440 −$440 -100%
Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Buvaysar Gadamauri May 06 $78 +$122 +155%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zhizhen Zhang vs Daniel Altmaier May 06 $125 +$155 +124%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $185 −$181 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev May 03 $216 −$214 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 −$99 -98%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $58 −$56 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $102 +$154 +152%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score May 02 $17 −$16 -97%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $198 −$193 -98%
La Bisbal: Tamara Korpatsch vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 02 $83 −$81 -98%
Cagliari: Matteo Arnaldi vs Gianluca Cadenasso May 02 $198 +$181 +92%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx May 01 $297 −$297 -100%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $1,035 −$1,015 -98%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Apr 27 $301 +$1,032 +344%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar Apr 17 $87 −$85 -98%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $492 −$484 -98%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Apr 17 $1,000 −$496 -50%
Tallahassee: Daniil Glinka vs Darwin Blanch Apr 17 $646 +$702 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 56m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $509 57m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 19¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 67¢ $1,289 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $376 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $375 6d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 49¢ $409 6d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 48¢ $28 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $3 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $44 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $19 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $28 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $3 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $3 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $12 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $94 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 19¢ $5 8d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 40¢ $1,043 17d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 17d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 17d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 40¢ $26 17d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 40¢ $639 17d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 25¢ $1 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 55¢ $605 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 41¢ $604 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.99 · official $488.99 (match) · 2898 history records