Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa054…a95d weather 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,482 (+13%) realized +$6,482 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate61%148W / 96L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day81.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,631
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +45.7% +31.8% 62% 41% +1.5%
≤30d 161 +9.7% -0.8% 61% 30% -6.2%
≤90d 244 +8.9% -1.4% 61% 31% -6.1%
all 244 +8.9% -1.4% 61% 31% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 31% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 14% -15.1%
15% -19.5% 7% -23.3%
20% -27.4% 4% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$37 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,482
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses148 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 236
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day81.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 29? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2? Jun 17 $28 −$23 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4? Jun 17 $1 −$28 -2062%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 4? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -235%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 4? Jun 17 $1 +$19 +3593%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 5? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1? Jun 17 $27 −$39 -145%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $316 +$24 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $498 +$177 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $83 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $252 +$88 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 +$25 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $67 +$18 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$4 +22%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June Jun 13 $207 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $97 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $142 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $210 +$39 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $116 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $319 +$43 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $324 +$76 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $304 +$23 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $68 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 09 $70 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $121 +$25 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $154 +$25 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $42 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $333 +$29 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 60¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 76¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 76¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 82¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 82¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 82¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 82¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $39 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 81¢ $66 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records