Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa056…defd weather 438 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-6%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate89%385W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$50
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$31
crypto 9% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +3.4% -6.4% 91% 18% -3.4%
≤30d 424 -0.7% -10.2% 90% 15% -6.7%
≤90d 433 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 15% -15.6%
all 433 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 15% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 15% -15.6%
10% -19.9% 2% -23.7%
15% -27.6% 2% -31.0%
20% -34.7% 2% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses385 / 48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)433 / 438
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 25? No 92¢ 93¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 25? No 92¢ 91¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? No 96¢ 94¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? No 91¢ 88¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 24? No 89¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$6 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$10 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$6 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 22 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 24? BUY No 89¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 89¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 81¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $10 45h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $10 45h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.33 · official $135.33 (match) · 841 history records