Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa057…f288
weather · 398 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$53 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$254
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses258 / 121
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)379 / 398
History coverage70d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 35 History 379 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$9
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 66¢ 88¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+33%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 86¢ $17 $19 +$3 (+15%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 44¢ 100¢ $7 $17 +$9 (+128%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+35%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 70¢ 63¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 84¢ 86¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 68¢ 78¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Yes 63¢ 90¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+42%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 72¢ 98¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+36%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 83¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 81¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 53¢ 98¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+84%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 76¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 37¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-35%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 81¢ 87¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 66¢ 81¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 23¢ 42¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+85%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 23 Jun 12 $0 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 23? Jun 12 $0 $0 +72%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 15 Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +2740%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 12 $0 $0 -382%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 12 $0 −$2 -1408%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $13 +$5 +39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $28 −$5 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 +$3 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $12 −$2 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $25 −$6 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$5 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 06 $2 $0 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 05 $1 $0 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 05 $6 $0 +8%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +53%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $3 $0 +4%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $4 $0 -2%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 05 $10 +$5 +54%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% −$26
other 27% −$45
weather 18% +$54
politics 4% −$31
finance 2% +$4
sports 2% −$6
economics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $1 57m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 81¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 84¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 88¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 89¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 89¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 61¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 63¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 63¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $2 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +51.1% +36.7% 63% 42% -7.7%
≤30d 152 +12.2% +1.5% 60% 34% -13.4%
≤90d 379 +14.2% +3.3% 68% 32% -10.7%
all 379 +14.2% +3.3% 68% 32% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 32% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 23% -19.2%
15% -15.6% 17% -27.0%
20% -23.9% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.88 · official $245.03 · 3500 history records