Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa057…d092 sports 591 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (282 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,210 (-2%) realized +$173 · open −$1,383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%121W / 455L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day281.5pace
Fees−$1,589est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,513
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (282 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 405 -23.3% -30.6% 19% 19% -38.5%
≤30d 576 -5.0% -14.1% 21% 21% -28.2%
≤90d 576 -5.0% -14.1% 21% 21% -28.2%
all 576 -5.0% -14.1% 21% 21% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover281.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 21% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 21% -35.1%
15% -29.8% 21% -41.3%
20% -36.7% 21% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$332 vs −$108 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,998
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$1,383
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses121 / 455
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1,589
Open positions15
Markets (closed)576 / 591
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$115
Trades / day281.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 21¢ 8¢ $2,245 $927 −$1,318 (-59%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 19¢ 44¢ $178 $406 +$228 (+128%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 24¢ 14¢ $692 $396 −$296 (-43%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) New York Yankees 25¢ 84¢ $56 $188 +$132 (+235%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 18¢ 6¢ $133 $48 −$84 (-63%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Under 27¢ 18¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-33%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Under 18¢ 16¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Colorado Rockies 27¢ 11¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-59%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Over 26¢ 10¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Milwaukee Brewers 25¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Under 22¢ 4¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-80%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 22¢ 19¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 24¢ 2¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-91%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 18¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 26¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $1 +$4 +283%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $998 −$998 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 17 $56 +$199 +352%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $48 +$129 +268%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $4,105 −$4,105 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $395 −$395 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $32 −$20 -62%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 17 $7 +$30 +453%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$34 +333%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 17 $29 +$84 +294%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $895 −$895 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $40 +$112 +283%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 +$13 +291%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $746 −$746 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $964 −$964 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $3,102 +$8,586 +277%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $0 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 18¢ $5 2m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $13 2m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $1 3m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $2 3m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $10 3m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 4m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 25¢ $3 7m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 25¢ $3 18m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 19¢ $140 18m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 19¢ $4 18m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 26¢ $9 19m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 27¢ $4 19m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 27¢ $5 19m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 27¢ $39 20m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 20m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 23m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 21¢ $10 28m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 25¢ $0 28m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 16¢ $2 28m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 28m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 25¢ $2 29m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 19¢ $111 31m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 19¢ $19 31m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 19¢ $1 31m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 19¢ $19 31m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 19¢ $19 31m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 19¢ $6 32m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 19¢ $0 32m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 19¢ $0 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,997.68 · official $1,997.69 (match) · 3500 history records