Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa059…a6e6 other 182 markets active 5h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,171 (+0%) realized +$1,171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%35W / 146L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,468per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$41
14 days+$8
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$94
politics 42% −$146
sports 8% +$1,115
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
culture 1% −$3
world 1% +$56
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 +0.1% -9.4% 9% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 136 -8.5% -17.2% 6% 4% -9.4%
all 181 +0.8% -8.8% 19% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 12% -9.1%
10% -17.5% 12% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 11% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,109) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$8 · ×8.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$1,171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses35 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,468
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $178 $178 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,879 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,253 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,981 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,384 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $2,481 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,534 −$6 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,552 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,929 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,858 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,378 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,007 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $67 +$65 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $57 +$74 +129%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,897 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,101 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $928 −$1 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $76 +$71 +93%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $532 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,841 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $5,975 −$6 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $4,589 −$7 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $716 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $419 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,361 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $72 +$67 +93%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,109 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $4,592 −$6 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,051 −$3 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $1,146 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,125 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? May 19 $630 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 4h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,130 7h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $906 7h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $907 9h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,181 30h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,182 34h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 34h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,180 39h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,180 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,182 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,082 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,084 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,135 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,136 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,188 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,190 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,090 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,092 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,096 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,097 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $178 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,372 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,374 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,370 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.93 · official $177.93 (match) · 612 history records