Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa065…00d4 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$874 (-0%) realized −$874 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,355per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$114
30 days−$1,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$16
politics 39% −$91
sports 14% −$831
world 2% −$4
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 -1.9% -11.2% 11% 7% -11.1%
≤90d 111 -8.3% -17.0% 8% 5% -10.6%
all 152 +1.5% -8.2% 17% 14% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 14% -9.9%
10% -16.9% 13% -18.5%
15% -25.0% 11% -26.4%
20% -32.3% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,128) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$19 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$874
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,355
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,116 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,128 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $756 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 14 $237 +$1 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $707 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,273 −$5 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,266 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $763 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,162 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,831 −$4 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $84 −$84 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,656 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,755 −$5 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $46 +$64 +140%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $4,317 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 03 $68 +$58 +86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $255 +$1 +1%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $6,421 −$6 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $269 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,240 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $522 −$1 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $67 +$62 +93%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $516 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $4,689 −$5 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $6,062 −$6 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 19 $313 −$1 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 19 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $685 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $686 2h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $863 4h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $864 6h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $456 8h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $457 9h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $868 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $870 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $678 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $679 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $754 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $756 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $740 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $741 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $708 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $709 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $755 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $756 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $683 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $684 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $658 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $659 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $618 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $618 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $762 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $763 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $751 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 519 history records