Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A0 0xa065…19c5 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+18%) realized +$78 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$47
crypto 6% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.0% +5.9% 83% 83% +11.1%
≤30d 6 +17.0% +5.9% 83% 83% +11.1%
≤90d 6 +17.0% +5.9% 83% 83% +11.1%
all 6 +17.0% +5.9% 83% 83% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 83% +11.1%
10% -4.2% 50% +0.5%
15% -13.5% 50% -9.2%
20% -22.0% 33% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$13 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 +$10 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $64 +$24 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $39 +$24 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $59 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $83 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $70 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $88 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $88 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $64 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $39 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.02 · official $104.02 (match) · 13 history records