Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa066…7676 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$7
other 24% $0
finance 7% $0
politics 4% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 14 -2.9% -12.1% 43% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 14 -2.9% -12.1% 43% 0% -10.5%
all 33 -2.8% -12.1% 24% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -10.3%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage252d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $8 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $59 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $5 −$1 -25%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $67 −$6 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $94 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $61 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $61 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $61 $0 -1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Washington vs. UCLA Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 12 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $46 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $8 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $8 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $35 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $24 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $11 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $36 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $41 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.58 · official $54.58 (match) · 144 history records