Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

A0 0xa069…ec3f crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$40 (+6%) realized +$42 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate82%18W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day24.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-0.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+10.3%	-0.2%	82%	55%	-13.0%
≤30d	22	+10.3%	-0.2%	82%	55%	-13.0%
≤90d	22	+10.3%	-0.2%	82%	55%	-13.0%
all	22	+10.3%	-0.2%	82%	55%	-13.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover24.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-0.2%	55%	-13.0%
10% ← realistic here	-9.8%	32%	-21.3%
15%	-18.5%	23%	-28.9%
20%	-26.5%	23%	-35.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$32 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.81 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$42

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses18 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage2d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day24.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	67¢	40¢	$5	$3	−$2 (-40%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 28	$5	+$5	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 28	$104	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 28	$76	+$8	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 28	$75	+$3	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 28	$30	+$16	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 28	$50	+$4	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 28	$50	+$7	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 28	$50	+$4	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 28	$50	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 28	$50	+$5	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 28	$31	+$15	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 28	$16	+$22	+140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 28	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 28	$5	+$6	+119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$3	$0	+16%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Jun 28	$5	+$1	+19%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$6	+$1	+14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$5	−$5	-97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$10	+$2	+16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$10	+$2	+24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$10	+$2	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$10	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$104	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $5.41 · 58 history records