Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa070…976d crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%39W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$10
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$5
other 3% −$1
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +25.8% +13.8% 65% 65% +14.0%
≤30d 68 +4.5% -5.4% 54% 54% -11.5%
≤90d 74 +1.0% -8.6% 53% 53% -13.4%
all 74 +1.0% -8.6% 53% 53% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 53% -13.4%
10% -17.3% 51% -21.7%
15% -25.3% 49% -29.3%
20% -32.6% 41% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses39 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage37d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $2 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2AM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3AM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2PM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 53¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records