Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa071…6250 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$340 (+16%) realized −$31 · open +$371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$82
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% +$373
sports 18% +$176
other 3% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.2% -14.2% 25% 25% -70.0%
≤30d 8 +16.9% +5.7% 50% 38% +18.1%
≤90d 8 +16.9% +5.7% 50% 38% +18.1%
all 8 +16.9% +5.7% 50% 38% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 38% +18.1%
10% -4.4% 38% +6.8%
15% -13.6% 38% -3.5%
20% -22.1% 38% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$25 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,991
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$371
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1,580 $1,953 +$373 (+24%)
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +206%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 21 $51 −$14 -27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$3 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$16 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,990.96 · official $1,990.96 (match) · 20 history records