Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa072…9e34 other 462 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,348 (-4%) realized −$1,159 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%193W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$90
14 days−$221
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$29
sports 34% −$663
world 2% +$532
economics 1% −$343
politics 0% −$136
crypto 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -5.9% -14.8% 47% 47% -5.8%
≤30d 75 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 45% -8.9%
≤90d 327 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 42% -7.1%
all 456 +8.8% -1.5% 42% 42% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 42% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 41% -19.2%
15% -19.5% 40% -27.0%
20% -27.4% 39% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$68 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$1,159
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses193 / 263
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions7
Markets (closed)456 / 462
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$69
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? No 43¢ 48¢ $64 $71 +$7 (+10%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 29¢ 14¢ $65 $31 −$34 (-53%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+36%)
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 24¢ $53 $24 −$29 (-55%)
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $87 $3 −$83 (-96%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 20¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $28 +$22 +75%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $19 +$31 +163%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $49 +$91 +186%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $43 −$42 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $181 +$129 +71%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $58 +$52 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $157 +$23 +15%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $76 −$75 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $49 −$48 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $76 +$74 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $113 −$13 -12%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 +$51 +51%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $26 +$24 +92%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $24 −$23 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $90 −$89 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $90 −$88 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $88 +$82 +93%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $27 +$23 +85%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $34 +$26 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $24 −$23 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $72 +$48 +67%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 +$29 +40%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$150 +216%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $87 +$63 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $158 −$98 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $43 +$187 +436%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $92 +$144 +156%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$30 +42%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $58 +$71 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $66 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 14¢ $7 16h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 18¢ $9 16h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 26¢ $27 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 33¢ $13 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 35¢ $36 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 38¢ $19 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 52¢ $26 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 19h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 9¢ $2 19h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 37¢ $15 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 37¢ $2 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 37¢ $1 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 37¢ $4 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 37¢ $1 20h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $33 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $157 40h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 12¢ $8 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 13¢ $7 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 14¢ $9 40h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 23¢ $7 40h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 33¢ $10 40h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 34¢ $10 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $9 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $6 40h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $9 40h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $4 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $8 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.75 · official $197.76 (match) · 3500 history records