Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa072…207f other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$118 (-1%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$22
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$30
politics 26% −$10
sports 23% −$67
crypto 9% −$13
economics 5% −$2
tech 4% −$6
world 3% −$2
finance 3% −$1
culture 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 63 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.8% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.2%
all 129 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 111
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $208 −$3 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $243 −$7 -3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $67 −$2 -3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $192 −$2 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $64 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $105 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $52 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $68 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $142 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $52 $0 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $19 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $378 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $739 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 28 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $66 49m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 6h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $48 6h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $48 14h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $29 15h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $29 22h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 23h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 31h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 31h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 37h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 38h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 42h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 42h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $45 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $55 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $55 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 85¢ $50 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $2 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $58 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $58 3d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.45 · official $65.45 (match) · 512 history records