Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa073…a3ba sports 1033 markets active 5h ago coverage 81d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,484 (-12%) realized −$8,484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%700W / 636L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$611est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,173
crypto 3% −$33
other 1% +$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -82.0% -83.7% 9% 9% -54.3%
≤30d 521 -53.4% -57.8% 31% 31% -20.3%
≤90d 1336 -19.6% -27.3% 52% 52% -13.9%
all 1336 -19.6% -27.3% 52% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 52% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 50% -22.2%
15% -40.6% 26% -29.7%
20% -46.4% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses700 / 636
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$611
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1336 / 1033
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1336 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HOTU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Playoff Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs Team Aether - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$61 -356%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutc Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$4 -11890%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Wildcard (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Gr Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 76¢ $73 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 78¢ $27 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $101 7h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 76¢ $100 26h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 78¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 78¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 78¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 78¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 78¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 78¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 78¢ $32 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 76¢ $69 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 78¢ $62 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 78¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 78¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $74 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 59¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY RUSTEC 75¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 58¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 58¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 58¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY RUSTEC 66¢ $85 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY RUSTEC 64¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY RUSTEC 63¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 78¢ $82 3d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 78¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 78¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner BUY Arch 78¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner BUY Arch 78¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records