Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A0 0xa075…1662 crypto 70 markets active 19h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$182 (+37%) realized +$190 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 30L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$168
14 days+$144
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$154
world 16% +$17
politics 6% −$2
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +74.4% +57.8% 60% 60% +133.7%
≤30d 10 +11.3% +0.7% 40% 40% +79.4%
≤90d 66 +6.7% -3.5% 55% 44% +24.7%
all 66 +6.7% -3.5% 55% 44% +24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 44% +24.7%
10% -12.7% 41% +12.7%
15% -21.1% 32% +1.9%
20% -28.9% 24% -8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 70
History coverage64d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$137 +369%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $54 +$34 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -28%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 14 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 14 $18 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 13 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 13 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 13 $6 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 07 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 07 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 07 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 07 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 06 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 05 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 05 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 05 $12 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 05 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 05 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $5 $0 -6%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 21 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 20 $15 +$16 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $111 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $63 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $37 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 18h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 27h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 6¢ $4 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $81 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 10¢ $7 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $6 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.25 · official $11.25 (match) · 194 history records