Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa07b…0ea1 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%31W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$10
sports 29% +$10
other 16% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 1% −$8
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.3% 41% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 46 +0.7% -8.9% 39% 2% -9.6%
all 69 +4.1% -5.8% 45% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 10% -9.9%
10% -14.8% 10% -18.5%
15% -23.0% 9% -26.4%
20% -30.6% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses31 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage532d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $31 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $70 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $76 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $73 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $75 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $119 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $272 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $8 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $25 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $24 −$4 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $20 +$1 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $38 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $75 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $295 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $3 $0 -8%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $266 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $32 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $22 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $10 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $3 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.44 · official $3.44 (match) · 239 history records