Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa07c…46fb sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-7%) realized −$91 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%41W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$93
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$120
other 9% +$26
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -10.1% -18.7% 34% 32% -22.4%
≤30d 112 -5.8% -14.8% 37% 35% -19.8%
≤90d 112 -5.8% -14.8% 37% 35% -19.8%
all 112 -5.8% -14.8% 37% 35% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 35% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 31% -27.5%
15% -30.4% 30% -34.5%
20% -37.2% 27% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses41 / 71
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions9
Markets (closed)112 / 121
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 71¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 22¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner MIBR 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$4 +50%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 +$7 +88%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Second half draw? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$3 -20%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $21 −$15 -75%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 +$10 +43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$14 +340%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.85 · official $21.85 (match) · 273 history records