trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 13¢ | 18¢ | $2,893 | $4,170 | +$1,277 (+44%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $2,180 | $2,250 | +$70 (+3%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $2,321 | $2,246 | −$75 (-3%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $814 | $903 | +$89 (+11%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | $150 | $195 | +$45 (+30%) |
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $148 | $1 | −$147 (-99%) |
| Spread: Thunder (-5.5) | Spurs | 51¢ | 0¢ | $255 | $0 | −$255 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 36¢ | 0¢ | $360 | $0 | −$360 (-100%) |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | Ducks | 9¢ | 0¢ | $90 | $0 | −$90 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Thunder | 1¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Spurs | 3¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Thunder | 57¢ | 0¢ | $142 | $0 | −$142 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 3¢ | 0¢ | $26 | $0 | −$26 (-100%) |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $115 | $0 | −$115 (-100%) |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | Sabres | 20¢ | 0¢ | $200 | $0 | −$200 (-100%) |
| Spread: Knicks (-5.5) | Cavaliers | 50¢ | 0¢ | $250 | $0 | −$250 (-100%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $249 | $0 | −$249 (-100%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $270 | $0 | −$270 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $297 | +$633 | +213% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Jun 12 | $180 | −$161 | -89% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1,380 | +$476 | +34% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 11 | $3,033 | +$1,630 | +54% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $247 | −$34 | -14% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $3,200 | +$100 | +3% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $850 | −$850 | -100% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 03 | $26 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $627 | −$347 | -55% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 28 | $5,778 | −$885 | -15% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 26 | $26 | −$26 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 24 | $361 | −$360 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 23 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-5.5) | May 22 | $250 | −$250 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-5.5) | May 21 | $255 | −$255 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $880 | +$150 | +17% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 15 | $1,819 | −$1,730 | -95% |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | May 15 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 09 | $220 | +$50 | +23% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 09 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | May 07 | $150 | +$20 | +13% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | May 07 | $429 | +$329 | +77% |
| Penguins vs. Flyers | May 07 | $270 | −$270 | -100% |
| Sabres vs. Bruins | May 07 | $254 | −$254 | -100% |
| Flyers vs. Penguins | May 07 | $96 | −$96 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | May 07 | $286 | −$286 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | May 07 | $607 | −$607 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Ducks | May 07 | $231 | −$231 | -100% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 07 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | May 07 | $588 | −$358 | -61% |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | May 07 | $437 | −$437 | -100% |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | May 07 | $174 | −$174 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 06 | $480 | +$130 | +27% |
| Spread: Rockets (-3.5) | May 02 | $465 | −$396 | -85% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | May 02 | $510 | +$234 | +46% |
| Lightning vs. Canadiens | May 02 | $269 | −$4 | -1% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | May 02 | $244 | +$288 | +118% |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? | May 01 | $190 | +$7 | +4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | May 01 | $305 | −$255 | -84% |
| Spread: Celtics (-5.5) | May 01 | $143 | −$90 | -63% |
| Penguins vs. Flyers | Apr 30 | $5 | +$5 | +100% |
| Utah vs. Golden Knights | Apr 30 | $157 | +$220 | +140% |
| Spread: Lakers (-4.5) | Apr 30 | $1,005 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Apr 30 | $210 | −$10 | -5% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | Apr 30 | $940 | +$18 | +2% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Apr 30 | $474 | +$443 | +94% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) | Apr 30 | $215 | −$166 | -77% |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W | Apr 29 | $1,012 | +$81 | +8% |
| James Comey arrested by May 15? | Apr 29 | $740 | −$20 | -3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +33.6% | +20.9% | 67% | 50% | +19.2% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -35.2% | -41.4% | 26% | 21% | -12.4% |
| ≤90d | 252 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 46% | 32% | -9.0% |
| all | 252 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 46% | 32% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -14.9% | 32% | -9.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -23.1% | 30% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 27% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 23% | -32.9% |