Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa080…50b6 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-41%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 172d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$1
other 44% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-64.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -47.1% -52.2% 33% 33% -20.7%
≤30d 6 -47.1% -52.2% 33% 33% -20.7%
≤90d 6 -47.1% -52.2% 33% 33% -20.7%
all 8 -60.4% -64.1% 25% 25% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.1% 25% -50.0%
10% -67.6% 25% -54.8%
15% -70.7% 25% -59.2%
20% -73.6% 25% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage172d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$19 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 5¢ $3 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 172d
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 172d
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records