Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa081…b4fb sports 440 markets active 10h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$814 (-14%) realized −$820 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%181W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$187
14 days−$187
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$328
sports 38% −$437
crypto 5% −$70
world 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 33% -52.5%
≤30d 43 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 33% -52.5%
≤90d 88 -28.9% -35.6% 31% 31% -47.2%
all 433 -16.0% -24.0% 42% 39% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 39% -22.2%
10% -31.3% 34% -29.7%
15% -37.9% 28% -36.5%
20% -44.0% 22% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$820
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses181 / 252
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)433 / 440
History coverage133d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$12 -81%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 +$3 +28%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 $0 -2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 +$1 +16%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 +$1 +35%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$5 +238%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $33 −$13 -40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $26 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $2 +$1 +73%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $2 +$3 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $6 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $3 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $7 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $8 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $7 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $3 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $6 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $6 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $11 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 24h
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 22¢ $1 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $1 31h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $2 31h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.10 · official $42.10 (match) · 1097 history records