Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa087…91f7 weather 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-2%) realized −$63 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate56%65W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$75
14 days−$85
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 25% -12.8%
≤30d 116 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 24% -12.9%
≤90d 116 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 24% -12.9%
all 116 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 24% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 24% -12.9%
10% -22.6% 12% -21.2%
15% -30.0% 9% -28.9%
20% -36.9% 8% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses65 / 51
Open positions8
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage25d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? No 90¢ 96¢ $108 $114 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? No 79¢ 78¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? No 84¢ 81¢ $68 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $29 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on June 25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $24 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $109 +$22 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$21 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $96 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $29 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $224 −$37 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $21 −$17 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $102 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $34 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $154 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $204 −$49 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $63 −$28 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $52 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24? Jun 23 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $102 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 −$16 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 74¢ $66 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 80¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 79¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 77¢ $114 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 84¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 74¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $62 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 86¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 84¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 79¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 81¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 71¢ $49 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $80 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 69¢ $29 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $131 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 96¢ $31 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $18 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.76 · official $381.77 (match) · 348 history records