Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa089…0653 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$36
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$17
crypto 12% $0
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -38.1% -44.0% 29% 29% -29.4%
≤30d 25 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 40% -20.3%
≤90d 25 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 40% -20.3%
all 25 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 40% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 40% -20.3%
10% -33.3% 40% -28.0%
15% -39.8% 40% -34.9%
20% -45.7% 28% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 +$8 +157%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$13 +128%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +41%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$20 +64%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +128%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$9 +180%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4 +$6 +158%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 76¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 39¢ $40 4h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 18¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 4d
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $23 5d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $20 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $3 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $30 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.63 · official $29.63 (match) · 49 history records