Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa089…b0a8 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-3%) realized −$41 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days−$205
14 days−$205
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$78
crypto 40% −$147
sports 14% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 33% -23.2%
≤30d 51 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 33% -23.2%
≤90d 76 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 36% -21.7%
all 76 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 36% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 36% -21.7%
10% -29.4% 34% -29.2%
15% -36.3% 30% -36.0%
20% -42.5% 25% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 44
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage50d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$31 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$56 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$36 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$18 +60%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 −$45 -49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$3 -4%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$16 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $27 −$2 -8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $33 −$19 -58%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$33 +160%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$121 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$26 +252%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$24 +217%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $50 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $57 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $63 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.30 · official $195.30 (match) · 209 history records