Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa08b…c143 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$2
world 34% $0
crypto 12% +$1
politics 10% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +16.4% +5.3% 38% 12% -10.0%
≤90d 8 +16.4% +5.3% 38% 12% -10.0%
all 35 -0.7% -10.1% 37% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage477d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 −$1 -18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $32 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 09 $14 $0 -4%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $14 $0 -2%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $15 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 28 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $3 −$2 -66%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 22 $16 $0 +1%
South Dakota vs. Oral Roberts Feb 26 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $1 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $14 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $4 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $19 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $16 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $19 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $15 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.52 · official $30.36 (match) · 104 history records