Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa08b…855b crypto 1834 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$312 (-3%) realized −$314 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate68%1431W / 674L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day83.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$73
14 days+$68
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$395
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1148 -27.2% -34.2% 65% 17% -10.9%
≤30d 2105 -19.2% -26.9% 68% 32% -8.4%
≤90d 2105 -19.2% -26.9% 68% 32% -8.4%
all 2105 -19.2% -26.9% 68% 32% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 32% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 3% -17.2%
15% -40.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -46.1% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$314
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1431 / 674
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2105 / 1834
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day83.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 81¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.83 · official $78.83 (match) · 3500 history records