Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa08b…fc34 crypto 98 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-4%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%46W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -32.1% -38.5% 38% 33% -30.9%
≤30d 98 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 34% -15.2%
≤90d 98 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 34% -15.2%
all 98 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 34% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 34% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 27% -23.3%
15% -34.8% 15% -30.7%
20% -41.2% 13% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses46 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +266%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +106%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +98%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +240%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records