Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
A0 0xa095…6040 politics 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$10,017 (+64%) realized +$9,962 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%123W / 107L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$546
7 days+$667
14 days+$75
30 days+$2,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$7,026
politics 32% +$1,015
other 31% +$1,469
economics 1% −$77
crypto 0% −$6
sports 0% +$98
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+72.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +171.0% +145.2% 100% 100% +172.1%
≤30d 29 +138.0% +115.4% 52% 52% +96.7%
≤90d 155 +108.1% +88.3% 52% 52% +54.4%
all 230 +90.9% +72.7% 53% 53% +49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +72.7% 53% +49.9%
10% +56.2% 52% +35.6%
15% +41.1% 50% +22.5%
20% +27.3% 49% +10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late +106% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$66 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1,029
Realized+$9,962
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses123 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions30
Markets (closed)230 / 260
History coverage130d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election? Yes 27¢ 40¢ $119 $180 +$61 (+51%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No 31¢ 84¢ $62 $167 +$105 (+169%)
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? No 32¢ 86¢ $35 $93 +$58 (+167%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 11¢ 90¢ $6 $51 +$45 (+720%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 40¢ 92¢ $20 $46 +$26 (+131%)
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? No 32¢ 82¢ $13 $33 +$20 (+158%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 39¢ 59¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Spain snap election called in 2026? No 31¢ 58¢ $15 $29 +$13 (+87%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? No 34¢ 42¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 26¢ 70¢ $9 $25 +$16 (+171%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $36 $22 −$15 (-40%)
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024? Yes 40¢ 85¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-25%)
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? No 17¢ 45¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+165%)
Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03? Yes 20¢ 5¢ $49 $13 −$36 (-74%)
Will Bruce Walden advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 21¢ 5¢ $32 $7 −$25 (-78%)
Will the Republican Party win the CO-05 House seat? Yes 26¢ 56¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+115%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-06 House seat? Yes 34¢ 83¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+144%)
Will Maria Brewer be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will Joe S. San Agustin win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $42 $3 −$39 (-92%)
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $71 $3 −$68 (-96%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $64 $1 −$62 (-98%)
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? No 26¢ 36¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Jun 23 $200 +$524 +262%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 23 $78 +$22 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $54 +$121 +223%
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $59 −$40 -67%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 16 $71 +$84 +119%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? Jun 16 $139 +$113 +81%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $286 −$286 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $0 +$1 +203%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $70 +$180 +257%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $46 +$227 +488%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $146 +$448 +306%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $62 +$188 +300%
Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? May 26 $50 +$319 +632%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? May 26 $94 +$443 +473%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 26 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $64 +$86 +134%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $90 +$395 +439%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $50 +$713 +1426%
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $73 −$73 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 22 $507 −$507 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 22 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou May 22 $20 +$23 +116%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar May 22 $23 +$47 +202%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 22 $30 +$39 +130%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 22 $73 +$18 +24%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $126 +$160 +126%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $65 +$132 +204%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 19 $2 +$10 +525%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $136 +$224 +165%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? May 14 $228 −$228 -100%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $170 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $64 1h
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? SELL No 93¢ $457 2h
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? SELL No 94¢ $210 5d
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary elect SELL No 2¢ $19 7d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes 5¢ $51 7d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? SELL No 53¢ $251 7d
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? SELL No 95¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 18¢ $90 7d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $69 7d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 25¢ $61 7d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 25¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $51 7d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $8 7d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $100 10d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 23¢ $76 10d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $70 10d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $58 10d
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $35 19d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 31¢ $62 19d
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 25¢ $61 22d
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 29¢ $58 22d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? BUY No 23¢ $7 22d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? BUY No 28¢ $70 22d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? BUY No 31¢ $62 22d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? BUY No 31¢ $62 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 15¢ $94 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $70 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,028.87 · official $1,026.62 (match) · 1165 history records