Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa097…dd92 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$396 (+19%) realized +$408 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$214
14 days+$377
30 days+$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$385
sports 3% +$29
politics 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 60% +3.4%
≤30d 20 +4.9% -5.1% 65% 65% +6.9%
≤90d 20 +4.9% -5.1% 65% 65% +6.9%
all 20 +4.9% -5.1% 65% 65% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 65% +6.9%
10% -14.2% 65% -3.3%
15% -22.5% 40% -12.7%
20% -30.1% 25% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$50 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$408
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage79d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $174 +$106 +61%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$51 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $201 +$54 +27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 24 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$5 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$150 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$69 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$44 +88%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $271 +$65 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $75 +$36 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $151 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $256 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $151 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 30h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $96 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.16 · official $18.76 (match) · 45 history records