Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa098…1dd2 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%40W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$1
other 18% −$4
politics 18% $0
tech 14% $0
economics 5% $0
weather 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 -0.1% -9.6% 82% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses40 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage515d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $1 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 16 $40 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Mar 20 $53 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Nati Jan 28 $26 −$4 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 29d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $27 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 90d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 121d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 150d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 180d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $29 181d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 210d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $35 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 99¢ $28 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 271d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $34 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $25 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 363d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? BUY No 100¢ $8 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.50 · official $42.50 (match) · 106 history records