Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa09a…2b5d crypto 386 markets active 2h ago coverage 414d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate49%189W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$27
other 13% −$4
finance 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 10% -9.5%
≤30d 54 -4.0% -13.1% 30% 2% -10.0%
≤90d 144 -2.2% -11.5% 42% 6% -9.8%
all 382 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 12% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 6% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

414d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses189 / 193
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)382 / 386
History coverage414d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 28 $90 $0 -0%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 26 $3 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 26 $135 $0 +0%
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 -6%
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 24 $131 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 18 $90 $0 -0%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $92 −$5 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $286 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 -1%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -1%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2 $0 -0%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 02 $1 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $88 1h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 2d
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 97¢ $2 2d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 2d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 96¢ $2 4d
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 4d
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 4d
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 4d
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 9d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 9d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 9d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 9d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 9d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 9d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $90 9d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 11d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.16 · official $91.16 (match) · 1007 history records