Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa09b…db3d other 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 1180d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,152 (-7%) realized −$9,445 · open −$707
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%106W / 98L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$745per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,045
14 days−$837
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$4,025
crypto 26% −$4,970
sports 18% +$127
politics 11% +$420
world 6% −$2,108
economics 3% +$539
culture 1% +$157
tech 1% −$1,016
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -32.3% -38.8% 40% 20% -8.0%
≤90d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 40% +1.8%
all 204 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 29% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 29% -15.9%
10% -21.9% 25% -24.0%
15% -29.4% 21% -31.3%
20% -36.3% 18% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$825) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$336 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1180d coverage
Net worth$1,346
Realized−$9,445
Unrealized−$707
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses106 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions5
Markets (closed)204 / 209
History coverage1180d
Avg bet$745
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $1,621 $930 −$691 (-43%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 30¢ 32¢ $300 $325 +$25 (+8%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $110 $58 −$52 (-48%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $12 $32 +$20 (+171%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,008 −$995 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $304 +$188 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $598 +$20 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $490 +$1,036 +211%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $489 −$215 -44%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $16 −$16 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? May 29 $400 $0 +0%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 0 - 3 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 15 $311 +$40 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $104 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 14 $130 +$148 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 14 $103 +$79 +77%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $174 +$826 +474%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $873 −$865 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $455 +$135 +30%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Draw at halftime? May 06 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 28 $96 +$91 +95%
Turk Telekom vs. Merkezefendi Apr 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 04 $128 −$126 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 23 $500 +$569 +114%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $533 +$300 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 17 $126 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 17 $259 +$191 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 17 $256 −$254 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 17 $120 −$118 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 17 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $952 +$20 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $2,858 −$1,763 -62%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $3,120 +$231 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 20 $2,977 −$2,945 -99%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Feb 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 18 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $652 −$165 -25%
Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Jan 27 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 24 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6PM ET Jan 23 $1,052 $0 +0%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 22 $48 +$4 +8%
Will SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Jan 21 $2,052 −$2,052 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $2,021 +$49 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12PM ET Jan 21 $1,583 −$1,583 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $4,397 +$34 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Fingers Crossed (BO3) - European Pro Jan 20 $128 +$20 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) Jan 18 $652 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 14¢ $63 1m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 13¢ $74 1m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 3m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $135 3m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $164 7m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $113 38m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 40¢ $157 53m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 40¢ $48 53m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 40¢ $100 53m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 53m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 53m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $119 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $33 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $286 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $286 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $636 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $241 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $49 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,346.50 · official $1,346.50 (match) · 2262 history records